From
a financial and economic perspective, these are interesting, difficult times
for Spain.
I’ve mentioned in previous articles about the danger that the markets might
begin to pick off weaker Euro zone countries one by one, and such a scenario
appears to playing out.
Spain’s banks are now in the process of
being bailed out by the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism
(EFSM) which comes as no surprise to those who saw how recklessly Spain’s banking
sector behaved when buying into the Spanish property boom. Where this will end
is anybody’s guess given that, firstly, the property market represents an
alarming percentage of Spain’s
GDP and, secondly, the current
bailouts assume no further deterioration in the value of the existing loans on
Spanish bank books. If asset – property - prices keep falling, one would assume
more support will be needed to prevent the banks becoming insolvent.
Concerns about Spain are reflected in Spanish 10-Year government bond yields which have been knocking on the door
of seven per cent of late. So how is all of
this impacting on the value of the euro which, in turn, affects costs for those
importing products from Spain
and the rest of the Euro zone?
In relative terms, Spanish products have
actually been getting less expensive for UK importers. For the past month, UK sterling v the
euro has hovered around the 1.24 to 1.25 mark, the euro having weakened
considerably during 2012. This is a good time to be importing from the Euro zone,
for sure.
Even so, it’s
still vital to have a currency strategy in place as the recent bailout of Spain won’t be
the end of matters where the Euro zone crisis is concerned. Austria's
finance minister Maria Fekter recently said that
Italy
might also require financial help soon due to its high borrowing costs. She
also added that Euro zone rescue funds, which have been stretched by supporting
Greece, Portugal, Ireland
and Spain, could be
insufficient to cope with Italy
as well.
In theory, this, the dreaded ‘contagion’ scenario, should send the euro
tanking even further against supposed safer havens such as UK sterling and
the US dollar. But the reason for a currency strategy is this: where currencies
are concerned, there are no sure-fire safe havens right now. Consider this: at
the same time as Spanish banks are being bailed out, the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) in the US
has recently issued its annual long-term budget outlook report. The 2012 numbers
see the CBO estimate that US
federal debt will rise to 70 per cent of GDP by the end of the year. This is
the highest percentage since World War II. So, while the euro might not look
very attractive right now, you wouldn’t want to be putting too much faith in
the US dollar either.
The message
in all of this is simple: hedge your bets as further currency volatility is
inevitable. Snap up some euros around that aforementioned 1.25 mark and
purchase Spanish products at what will be, for UK importers, the most competitive
prices for more than three years. But build in some scope for further euro
purchases later in the year. All other things being equal, we’d expect the euro
to deteriorate even further.
At
Smart Currency Exchange, we update our views on the euro/sterling exchange rate
on a daily basis. We also produce on a monthly basis our “Outlook” report which
pulls together our thoughts and those of the mainstream banks on where to next
for exchange rates. Download your copy now at www.SmartCurrencyBusiness.com or call us on 0845 638 0571 (or +44 (0)207 898 0541) to discuss your situation.